Thursday 29 December 2022

Wither Trump

  As a guess, right now, via some unobserved channel, a feeler has been sent out to someone who knows someone, who knows someone else, who has the ear of someone in authority at the US Department Of Justice.

 "If Donald Trump ended his campaign for the presidency in 2024, and pledged to stop the shit stirring that led to the attempted insurrection and that has helped divide the nation- would any potential federal charges against him... go away?

 Not by pardon. That's unattainable unless a particular type of Republican takes the presidency. But by the simple expedience of not actually pressing these charges?

 Hey, Binky, it's a win-win. Trump gets off the national political stage, and doesn't spend the next couple years fighting in court- and whatever administration is in office next does not have to deal with the political ramifications of Trump's not facing charges.

 Just, you know, think it over. Word to the wise, and all. "

 Assume Biden retains the presidency- four more years. That gives us until January 2029 before a pardon might be issued for any Federal crimes. Best part of a decade- during which all kinds of things can happen, if charges are filed- and even if they are simply left hanging over head.

 During which Trump, in office or not- can stir up a lot of cess, what hey?

 Why not just... kick this away, now? Trump is closing in on his eighties, he's already slowing down- clearly slowing down- what are the odds that he'll become more reasonable, more responsible, more sane?

 This is the... Doug and Dinsdale Piranha approach. Nice country you have there, squire. Shame if something were to... happen to it. 

  I can even imagine Biden- the ever reasonable man who seems to believe in the Siegel and Shuster version of the US- working his way toward this kind of thinking. 

 "Pardon? HELL no. But if we could just make him go away... let the country get over him. get past him? Make the deal"

 This is- of course- exactly the wrong thing to do. 

 Because?

 Because things keep getting worse. Nixon? Watergate only got investigated at all because of massive bad luck and incompetence. And even then, once the nation got a taste for Sam Irvin chewing thoughtfully on his vowels, what was the result? Congress sent representatives to the Oval Office with a 45 caliber automatic, with one bullet in the chamber; resign, or we impeach, and we convict.  

 Then Reagan ignored Congress, as well as the Constitution, traded arms with Iran and used what sure seems to have been illegally raised cash to run a private war. Then George HW Bush lied us into a war with Iraq, first telling Saddam Hussein's government that the US would not interfere in their dispute with Kuwait-  they invaded a week later- and then crying to anyone who listened about this illegal and evil invasion. Then fabricating evidence of a non existent military build up as justification for sending in troops. Thousands died, thousands injured. Including a great many civilians when the US targeted infrastructure for leverage. 

 And then his son, after ignoring warnings specifically related to a potential attack on the World Trade Center- warnings which specifically mentioned Osama Bin Laden, lied us into an even bigger war in the Middle East. 

 Had Nixon faced serious consequences for his actions, I would argue that none of these things would have taken place- because each president would have been aware of the perils of running afoul of Congress. Of pissing off the people who can take you right the hell out of office and throw you into prison. 

 But nothing happened then. And nothing happened again, and again, and again. Some exciting theatrics, to interest the factions, but nothing else.

 What, then, dissuades a man like Trump from saying and doing whatever the hell he pleases? What dissuades him- when common sense won't- from stirring up an attempt to overthrow the government of the US when he loses an election?

 Not a goddamned thing. 

 We have gone from a man trying to game an election through three men who ran illegal wars in other countries, and now to a man who tried to start a war in this country.

What's next? If we don't demonstrate that there are limits to our tolerance, if we don't have one of the three Constitutional authorities following through on what is their job- oversight and if necessary, punishment- when whomever gets into that office has no fear- not of the people or of his government- what next?

 Think about this. Trump didn't actually get away with overturning the election. If you have been following the J6 hearings, it is pretty clear that the big stop for them was massive incompetence: Bad advice, lots of bad judgement and really terrible follow through. Marked by a clear lack of true belief in what they were trying to do.

 Trump didn't want to stay in office because of the work, because of the things he thought his administration had to get done for this country. Trump wanted to stay there because the thing- which I am certain he never either expected to win or wanted to win- turned out to be a pretty good gig.  Lots of ego-boo. Lots of knob polishing. People who formerly wouldn't let him or any of his greasy ilk through the front door- and certainly not in daylight- had to lay out the red carpet. People spent money- and a lot of it- to curry favor. 

 It also kept him away from prosecution.

 His staff, his lawyers, his advisers didn't want to stay in power for any better reason. 

 So. What if the next president is smarter? Is more interested in their agenda, and surrounds themselves with whip smart true believers, true idealists?

 If Trump doesn't get a serious taste of the lash for his actions- this latest escalation in presidential middle finger waving? This still theoretical smart and competent president will get away with far more, and to my thinking, far worse. 

 The J6 committee are done. The new Congress, seated in January, are not going to be interested in much other than either keeping Biden's plans going or stopping Biden cold. Referrals for charges have been made.

 There is still time left for the DOJ to act. For this administration to act. 

  And they should. Trump should be tried, and if the evidence supports it, found guilty and sentenced.

 Jail?

 Never happen. Throwing an 80ish year old man- and former president- into jail? Never happen. 

 But there are other punishments to consider. Forbidding him from holding office, closing down his finances, restricting the amount of trouble he can cause. 

 Sending a message down through time to the next president.



 

 







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